Helena Valley Northwest, MT 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS65 KTFX 060858
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
258 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - This afternoon and evening there will be gusty winds across
   North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky
   Mountain Front and adjacent plains.

 - Today it will be warm but it briefly cools on Saturday across
   North-central Montana with isolated rain showers across North-
   central, Central, and Southwestern Montana today and Saturday.

 - It will warm up Sunday through early next week with a trend
   towards a cooler and wetter pattern for the middle of the week
   through at least next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today through Saturday there will be a couple of upper-level
shortwave troughs that will move through with northwest flow aloft
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
bring isolated showers to the area today and Saturday. Today rain
showers will be mostly confined to the Hi-Line. There will be a
slightly greater coverage of showers on Saturday. The shortwave
trough that moves through this afternoon will bring gusty winds to
North-central Montana this afternoon through this evening with the
strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
This evening through early Saturday morning a cold front from Canada
will push south through North-central Montana. This will cool down
high temperatures on Saturday to around seasonal averages across
North-central Montana.

On Sunday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will warm temperatures up to
above seasonal averages with mostly dry weather. The upper-level
ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana on Monday. This will allow temperatures to warm up to well-
above seasonal averages with dry conditions. On Tuesday the upper-
level ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. An upper-level shortwave will move through the
upper-level ridge and bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday and Thursday quick
moving upper-level shortwaves will move through the upper-level flow
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
allow temperatures to cool to near seasonal averages with showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today there is greater than a 60% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. On
Saturday there is a 15% chance for thunderstorms in Central and
Southwestern Montana. On Sunday and Monday in Southwestern Montana
there is a 15% chance for thunderstorms. On Tuesday and Thursday
there is a 20 - 50% chance for thunderstorms across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 55%
chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana.

Wednesday through Thursday there is a 40 - 75% chance for a quarter
inch of rain or greater and a 20 - 50% chance for half an inch of
rain or greater across North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. On Monday and Tuesday there is a 30 - 60% chance for high
temperatures of 90 degrees or greater across North-central Montana.
On Tuesday there is a 45% chance for high temperatures of 90 degrees
or greater in the Helena and Gallatin Valleys. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
06/06Z TAF Period

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours as a surface high
pressure remains over the area. Though this high pressure will
generally keep things tranquil, a passing upper level shortwave
trough will bring a period of increased mid and upper level
clouds, along with a few showers across the higher terrain and
some gusty winds to 35 knots along the Rocky Mountain Front Friday
afternoon. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  53  67  46 /  20  20  10   0
CTB  78  51  66  43 /  20  10  10   0
HLN  81  54  80  50 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  78  46  79  46 /   0  20   0  10
WYS  69  37  73  39 /   0  10   0  10
DLN  76  44  79  46 /  10  20   0   0
HVR  84  54  71  44 /  10  20  10  10
LWT  76  50  65  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls